Tyre Market in Line for a Sell-in Bounce
Market analysts are predicting tyre industry sell-in sales volumes will improve sharply in the second quarter of 2009. Morgan Stanley experts explained in an investor’s note issued on 9 April that production cuts of between 40 and 60 per cent in OE and 10 to 40 per cent in replacement tyre production in January and February were “far more draconian than anticipated,” but nonetheless “deliberate and forthright” action. “We estimate Michelin’s sell-in tyre volume through the first two months of the year has declined approximately 20 per cent, assuming constant market share. Simply put, we believe this pace of volume decline is not sustainable,” the analysts commented.
The theory is that dealers that de-stocked tyres rather than purchase additional products at the beginning of 2009 are currently, or will soon, run low on inventory and therefore tyre factories must start running again. “We forecast Michelin tyre volume down 6.6 per cent for the full year, implying rest-of-year volumes down 3.9 per cent. At a minimum, we expect the extraordinary pace of volume decline to diminish sharply and soon.”