Demand for trailers grew by 4.4 per cent in Eastern Europe in 2018, according to the latest research released by Clear. The market has grown every year for the last six years, but that growth has been quite moderate. Nevertheless, trailer sales in 2018 were the third highest on record, only surpassed in 2007 and 2008. The forecast for 2023 is that registrations of new trailers will be heading towards an all-time record.
Poland, Russia and Turkey, the three largest trailer markets in Eastern Europe, all rallied in the second half of 2017 to push total trailer demand for the region back over 90,000 units for the first time in 10 years, according to Clear International data, which adds: “The strong demand will carry forward into 2018 so that the market will grow by another 4.0 per cent”.
Market analysts at Clear report that the Eastern Europe trailer market has been hit by a severe downturn in the Turkish market for commercial vehicles. The forecast for Turkey in 2017 is for a fall in trailer demand of 29 per cent on the back of large declines in 2015 and 2016. Political instability had already undermined business confidence in early 2016 and then in mid-year there was an attempted military coup. This had a dire and worsening effect on business investment. As a result, a further 19,700 trailers have been wiped from the Turkish forecast.
The latest figures suggest that in 2016 we had the third highest level of new trailer registrations ever, surpassed only by the figures for 2007 and 2008. However, there is also “a distinct weakening of the market in the second half of the year” according to CLEAR analysts who suggest the market is now forecasting a weaker fourth quarter than was predicted earlier in 2016. Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are all less buoyant markets than they were assumed to be six months ago.
The West European trailer market got off to a strong start in 2016, according to analysts Clear who report that trailer demand will grow 9.3 per cent in the first half and 9.2 per cent for the year as a whole.
As far as the different European nations as concerned, Clear reports that Germany and Italy will have strong increases in trailer registration this year and account for more than half of the market growth on their own. Other markets posting strong growth will be Spain, France and Denmark.
Recession, sanctions plus the plummeting oil price has had a devastating impact on the outlook for trailer demand in Russia. A year ago Clear International’s analysis suggested 24,000 trailers were wiped from the forecast published in March 2015. Six months ago a further 8,000 trailers were removed from the prognosis. In the current forecast yet another 4,000 trailers have been removed from the Russian outlook.
West European trailer market grew 13.4 per cent in 2015, but this strong growth was eclipsed by even stronger demand in the UK where the market’s 25 per cent growth not only outperformed the European average by almost 100 per cent, but also set an all-time record figure.
In 2015 the West European trailer market got off to a strong start with registrations of new trailers up 14.8 per cent in the first half and 8.1per cent growth forecast for the second. Overall then, the market will be stronger than anticipated at the beginning of the year, according to Clear International’s analysis.
The instability in Ukraine plus the plummeting oil price has had a devastating impact on the outlook for trailer demand in Russia, according to new research published by Clear. Nearly 24,000 trailers were wiped from the last forecast for the 2015 – 2019 period in the report issued in March 2015. In the latest forecast a further 8,000 trailers have been removed from the forecast for Russia and the Ukraine.
The West European trailer market saw substantial growth in 2014, with an increase of 14.8 per cent over the previous year. According to new data produced by Clear International, the star performers were the UK and Germany, both of which saw their markets increase by 5,000 units. Other strong performers were Spain, France and the Netherlands where trailer demand was up by more than 2,000 units. In fact only Italy, Norway and Denmark failed to register a double digit percentage increase, the latter two only because they had both seen good increases in previous years.
The instability in both Ukraine and Syria has had a real impact on the outlook for trailer demand, indeed the East European trailer market is said to be flatlining in 2014. According to a new report produced by Clear International, nearly 7,000 trailers have been wiped from the forecast for the 2014/15 period. That is in addition to the reductions made to the last forecast in March this year following the annexation of Crimea. The forecast reductions affect Russia, Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia, plus Turkey which borders Syria.
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