UK van market falls by nearly a fifth in October

The UK’s new light commercial vehicle (LCV) market fell by -18.4 per cent in October, with 22,386 of the latest vans joining Britain’s roads. Despite robust demand, registrations were at the lowest level for October since 2012, and some -16.5 per cent below the pre-pandemic five-year average, as supply shortages continue to restrict global production and availability.

Deliveries of the most popular large vans weighing more than 2.5 tonnes declined -7.6 per cent, while registrations of mid-weight vehicles weighing up to 2.5 tonnes fell by -50.7 per cent and those weighing 2.0 tonnes or under by -80.7 per cent. Meanwhile, there was growth in registrations of pick-ups for the first month this year and 4x4s for the second month in a row.

During challenging operating conditions, battery electric van (BEV) deliveries continued to increase, rising 52.5 per cent year-on-year in October to represent 7.6 per cent of the market – up from 4.1 per cent in the same month last year.

Manufacturers continue to invest to bring more zero emission van models to market, with a growing number of van buyers opting to reduce their carbon footprint with the benefits of lower taxation, purchase incentives and urban zone charge exemptions. This trend has carried throughout 2022, with BEV volumes up 52.9 per cent and representing 5.5 per cent of all LCV registrations this year.

The overall market has declined in the year to date, however, down -19.9 per cent to 235,962 units – some -24.1 per cent below the pre-pandemic five-year average. This has led to a downgraded outlook for full year 2022, to 290,000 units, down -18.5 per cent on 2021 and -20.8 per cent lower than 2019. While the LCV market is expected to rally in 2023 to 330,000 units, and up to 351,000 units during 2024, these totals would still be below pre-pandemic levels.

BEV registrations are expected to grow as new models come to market, but their anticipated share in 2023 has been revised to 8.7 per cent, down from the 9.2 per cent expected in our last outlook in July. In 2024, BEVs are expected to represent 11.0 per cent of the market. While manufacturers are committed to meeting Britain’s ambitious net zero targets, success depends on a strong, flexible market. The sector is calling for fiscal measures that ensure robust BEV demand, as well as attractive incentives and action to drive the rapid roll-out of suitable van chargepoint stations across all regions of the UK.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said; “The UK’s van market continues to be shackled by supply shortages amid difficult operating conditions, which will likely continue into 2023, easing over the course of the year. “Demand for zero emission vans remains robust despite these challenges, but a successful net zero transition will require measures targeted at long-term operator confidence.”