SMMT: October car registrations at 20-year low

New car registrations fell in October for the fourth consecutive month, with the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reporting a 24.6 per cent decline to 106,265 units compared with October last year. The market’s monthly performance was the weakest seen since October 1991; demand from large fleets fell by 40.4 per cent, driving most of the decline. Private demand declined by just 3.3 per cent, but SMMT points out that consumer uptake during the pandemic-affected October 2020 was weak as well.

Falls were recorded in all vehicle classes except Mini, although this is typically a low volume segment and so subject to volatility; the most popular Mini categories were lower medium (up 30.7 per cent), supermini (up 30.0 per cent) and dual purpose (up 26.6 per cent).

Plug-in vehicle uptake also remained positive, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) equalling their September market share of 15.2 per cent with 16,155 units, while plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) grew to 7.9 per cent or 8,382 units. These vehicles now account for 16.6 per cent of all new car registrations in 2021, which, when joined by a further 9.1 per cent from hybrid electric vehicles means that 25.7 per cent, or more than a quarter of the new car market, has been electrified year-to-date.

In fact, plug-in vehicle uptake rates have accelerated so rapidly that SMMT forecasts that more will join Britain’s roads in 2021 than during the whole of 2010 to 2019 combined. Businesses and consumers are expected to take up around 287,000 of the latest zero-emission capable cars by the end of the year.

Partial recovery in 2022

Looking ahead, the latest SMMT forecast has been revised downward by 8.8 per cent to 1.66 million units, in light of the on-going supply issues and deteriorating economic outlook. This would see 2021 finish 1.9 per cent, or some 30,000 units, up on 2020, but some 650,000 units down on 2019’s pre-pandemic 2.3 million performance.

The SMMT forecasts a partial recovery for 2022, however, with industry anticipating some 1.96 million new car registrations next year. This will be driven by continued demand for plug-in vehicles, which is expected to continue at pace with new BEVs anticipated to be more popular than new conventional and mild-hybrid diesels by the end of 2022.2 Plug-in cars are also expected to account for 21.5 per cent of all new car registrations next year.

“The current performance reflects the challenging supply constraints, with the industry battling against semiconductor shortages and increasingly strong economic headwinds as inflation rises, taxes increase and consumer confidence has weakened,” says Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive.

“Electrified vehicles, however, continue to buck the trend, with almost one in six new cars registered this year capable of zero-emission motoring, growth that is fundamental to the UK’s ability to hit its net zero targets,” Hawes continues. “With next year looking brighter, and even more new models expected, the continuation of this transition will depend on the preservation of incentives that overcome the affordability barrier, and the ability of the public and private sectors to increase public on-street charging to allay EV driver concerns.”