Natural Rubber Production Growth Slower than Expected

Data and estimates from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) indicate global supply of natural rubber will grow this year at a slower rate that previously anticipated. Forecasts based on preliminary estimates and reports available up to mid-June point to a 5.2 per cent growth, lower than the 6.3 per cent rate anticipated in March and 6.1 per cent rate anticipated in May.

When the 6.3% output growth for this year was anticipated in March, the ANRPC cautioned this to be an optimistic rate and pointed out a host of constraints in attaining this. Two major constraints in the list were existing yielding rubber trees in major producing countries were largely planted during 1980s and they have now reached senile stage having low yield; and the anticipated rate assumed a favourable climate during the whole year. The association cautions that the revised 5.2 per cent rate may be subject to further downward revisions. Provisional full-year figures estimate 2010 global natural rubber will reach 9,384,000 tonnes, up 5.2 per cent on 2009. Thailand will continue to be the largest single producer of natural rubber, supplying an estimated 3,164,000 tonnes this year – the same amount as in 2009.

Figures held by the ANRPC, available up to May 2010, also reveal that China, India and Malaysia accounted 47 per cent of the world’s global natural rubber consumption in 2009. This year, in the period between January and May the three countries consumed a combined 1,649,000 tonnes of natural rubber, with China alone accounted for 1,110,000 tonnes. This represents a 28 per cent year-on-year increase, however a corresponding increase was not seen in the volume of natural rubber imported by China. This grew only 13.7 per cent year-on-year from January to May, indicating that Chinese firms are largely relying on their domestic stocks rather than sourcing their raw material requirements abroad.