Global Natural Rubber Production to Fall 2.2% in 2009

Natural rubber production is expected to fall by around 2.2 per cent during the course of 2009, following a 0.4 per cent dip in 2008, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), which represents 94 per cent of global production. According to the latest monthly report published by ANRPC all natural rubber (NR) producing countries have entered into a “declining phase.”

Thailand, which is the largest NR producing country in the world and is said to account for around a third of global supply, saw production drop 13.9 per cent year-on-year in the first two months of 2009. Thailand’s Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand predicts that 2009 production levels will by 0.5 per cent compared with from 2008, making it the market least affected by the apparent global decline.

China is the only market expected to increase production in 2009, with output predicted to grow 13.7 per cent. However, according to ANRPC senior economist Jom Jacob, this seemingly sharp increase is in fact only a return to normal production levels after production feel 13.3 per cent in 2008. Jacob points out that even when taking the anticipated 13.7 per cent increase into account, production will still end up marginally lower than the pre-2008 levels. Rubber Research Institute under the China Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences in the Hainan Province of the People’s republic predicts that production will be 580,000 tonnes in 2009 compared with 510,000 tonnes in 2008 and 588,000 tonnes in 2007.

Production in Indonesia is anticipated to decline by 6 per cent in 2009, despite an expected expansion of tappable area by 30,000 hectares, according to estimates of the Directorate of Perennial Crops, Ministry of Agriculture. Being the second largest producing country in the world, Indonesia accounts for around 29 per cent of global supply.

Malaysia saw production fall 10.7 per cent in 2008 and, according to the Malaysian Rubber Board is expecting a further decline of 4.6 per cent in 2009. The most recent estimates reveal a 43.5 per cent decline in output during January 2009 compared with January 2008. Tapped area which came down by 173,000 hectares in 2008 and is anticipated to come down by a further 20,000 in 2009.