RMA: US Tyre Shipments to Decrease

(Akron/Tire Review) US tyre shipments this year are expected to decrease by 2.8 per cent compared to 2005, reflecting an overall slowdown in the US economy, according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association (RMA). While GDP growth was 5.6 per cent in the first quarter, second-quarter growth slowed substantially to 2.5 per cent, said the RMA. “Slower growth and higher energy costs appear to be forcing consumers to prioritise spending including postponing tyre replacement,” the organization said.

However, RMA’s Tire Market Analysis Committee projects growth to resume in 2007, with total tyre shipments expected to increase by nearly 7 million units to 319 million units, or approximately 2.3 per cent. Once fuel prices stabilize as predicted, the number of vehicles and miles driven annually will increase, said the committee.

Overall, the combined original equipment and replacement shipments for 2006 auto and truck categories are anticipated to decrease by 8.9 million units, to nearly 312 million units compared to 320.8 million total shipments in 2005.

The OE passenger tyre market will decrease by more than 2 per cent, to approximately 51 million units in 2006 as a result of a decrease in domestic light vehicle sales and subsequent decreases in domestic light vehicle production. The RMA expects no growth in 2007. The RMA projects approximately 5.6 million OE light truck tyres to be shipped this year. However, a 5.6 per cent, or 300,000, unit increase in 2007 is forecast as demand for small commercial trucks remains strong.

OE commercial medium truck and super wide tyre sales will experience modest growth in 2006 due to continued vehicle replacement demand and response to future changes in EPA emission regulations, according to the RMA. As a result, 6.6 million OE units are forecasted to be shipped in 2006, or an increase of 5.7 per cent. A sharp decline of approximately 16 per cent is anticipated in 2007 to 5.5 million units as some pulled-ahead truck sales that would have been realized in 2007 are being shifted to 2006.

The passenger replacement market will decrease by approximately 2.3 per cent, to nearly 198 million units for 2006, representing a decline of 4.6 million units over 2005’s shipments, the RMA reported. However, the P-metric and ultra-high performance tyre markets are projected to increase more than 5 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively, compared to 2005.

In 2007, the market will rebound by approximately 7 million units, to nearly 205 million units, as consumers will need to replace tires. Overall, growth in the replacement market is primarily a result of the number of vehicles on the road and vehicle miles travelled, said the RMA.

The replacement light truck tyre market will decrease by approximately 7.6 per cetn, to 33.3 million units in 2006 due to the increasing popularity of crossover vehicles and smaller SUVs that use P-metric passenger tires rather than light truck tires, according to the RMA committee.

Finally, the replacement medium truck and super wide commercial tyre market is projected to decrease by approximately 2 per cent, to 17.2 million units in 2006, but an increase of approximately 400,000 units is forecasted in 2007, to 17.6 million units.