North American Autos – Report Paints Two Scenarios

Industry consultants Autopolis have produced a report on the US Auto industry. The terrorist attacks in September make forecasting difficult, so Autopolis has developed two scenarios. The first assumes that the US economy moves back to pre-September 11th levels fairly quickly, resulting in only “a typical US recession” with auto sales falling 14 per cent in 2002.

Scenario number two is described as “bleak” and presumes a prolonged war on terrorism, problems with oil supplies, rising inflation and a fall in the value of the Dollar. In this case US sales and production would fall by one third, and fall for two years before stabilising. The reality is likely to lie somewhere between these two extremes, says Autopolis, and flexibility is the key for businesses to survive and prosper.